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FSD v15 Debuts on Robotaxis; Capex Soars Amid Profit Miss

TL;DR
  • Tesla's Robotaxi fleet is now running early builds of FSD v15, having logged over 380,000 unsupervised miles with a spotless safety record.
  • The company confirmed FSD will come to the Tesla Semi by early next year, while Cybercab production has commenced.
  • Tesla's Q2 operating income plunged 57% year-over-year, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time in two years.
  • Full-year capital expenditures are projected to exceed $25 billion, with spending set to increase for the next two to three years.

Welcome back to the TSLAblog.com Daily Digest. Aimee Joiner here, cutting through the noise to deliver the vital stats. Tesla's Q2 earnings call continues to reverberate, revealing both audacious advancements in autonomy and significant financial headwinds. Let's dive in.\n\n## FSD v15 Deploys Early on Robotaxis, Semi Next in Line\n\nTesla's next-generation Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, v15, is already operating on public roads within the Robotaxi network, ahead of its anticipated public launch later this year or early next year Not a Tesla App. Executives revealed during the Q2 earnings call that retrofitted Model Y vehicles are running early builds of FSD v15, which already incorporate approximately 40% of the planned improvements over v14 Not a Tesla App. These Robotaxis have accumulated over 380,000 miles of unsupervised driving across six cities in two states, maintaining an \"impeccable safety record\" with zero notable incidents Not a Tesla App Not a Tesla App. The deployment confirms that FSD v15 will run on Hardware 4 (HW4) vehicles, offering a 10x increase in parameters over current FSD builds Not a Tesla App.\n\nHowever, the path to widespread Robotaxi deployment isn't entirely smooth. While the company touts \"more than 10% weekly growth\" in unsupervised miles, independent analyses of Tesla's own Q2 data indicate that cumulative paid Robotaxi mileage growth has flatlined or even reversed quarter-over-quarter Gadget Review. TechCrunch estimates a 36% decline in paid miles from Q1 to Q2 2026, dropping from approximately 1.1 million to 700,000 Gadget Review. This discrepancy highlights a critical challenge: Elon Musk admitted that billions of customer FSD miles don't automatically transfer to new vehicle chassis like the purpose-built Cybercab, requiring specific validation data Drive Tesla Canada Gadget Review. Meanwhile, Tesla also confirmed that FSD is coming to the Tesla Semi, with a target timeline of late this year or early next year Not a Tesla App.\n\n## Q2 Profit Miss, Negative Cash Flow, and Soaring Capex\n\nTesla's second-quarter earnings report painted a challenging financial picture, with the company missing profit expectations despite beating revenue estimates Yahoo Finance. Adjusted earnings came in at $0.33 per share, significantly below Wall Street's expectation of $0.54 per share TradingView Times of India. While revenue reached $28.2 billion, up 26% year-over-year, operating income plunged 57% to $398 million, driven by higher selling, general & administrative (SG&A) and research & development (R&D) expenses TradingView IndustryWeek. This financial performance led to negative free cash flow of $1.1 billion for the first time in over two years Automotive World The Guardian.\n\nThe primary driver for these financial shifts is Tesla's aggressive capital expenditure. CFO Vaibhav Taneja confirmed that full-year capex for 2026 is expected to exceed $25 billion, a substantial increase from previous years, with investments projected to grow further over the next two to three years IndustryWeek TradingView. This massive spending is largely directed towards scaling Optimus humanoid robot production, ramping up Cybercab manufacturing, and investing in AI infrastructure IndustryWeek Autoweek. Musk stated that Tesla is spending \"as fast as we can without it being too wasteful,\" emphasizing a balance between capital efficiency and speed IndustryWeek. These investments are critical for Tesla's long-term vision, but the immediate financial impact has raised concerns among investors, leading to significant stock volatility.\n\n## Market Watch\n\nTSLA stock closed Friday, July 24, 2026, down 2.18% at $312.71, extending a difficult week for investors. Shares had plummeted as much as 15% on Thursday following the Q2 earnings report, marking one of the steepest single-day drops in over a year and erasing $200 billion in market value The Guardian Bloomberg WSJ. Year-to-date, TSLA has lost 17% TradingView, with the stock trading at its lowest since last August after Thursday's nosedive CleanTechnica.\n\nShort sellers capitalized on the decline, raking in $4 billion in profits on Thursday alone Bloomberg. Elon Musk's net worth also took a hit, dropping $36.7 billion (-4.62%) to $757.8 billion since the prior trading day, though he remains the world's richest person Forbes.\n\nDespite the sell-off, some investors are buying the dip. Cathie Wood's Ark Investment Management bought over $51.2 million worth of Tesla shares across four ETFs on Thursday, including ARKK, ARKQ, ARKW, and ARKX TradingView. Analyst sentiment remains mixed, with some noting that while heavy AI spending is a \"necessary investment,\" Tesla must deliver \"tangible\" milestones for its robotaxi and Optimus projects to satisfy investors Times of India.\n\n## Quick Hits\n\n* Tesla launched Robotaxi service in Tampa and Orlando, Florida, with initial geofenced areas targeting tourist use CleanTechnica Not a Tesla App.\n* The Cybercab will integrate Starlink V5 for connectivity CleanTechnica.\n* Tesla's Q2 deliveries reached a record 480,126 vehicles, driven by strong Model Y demand and growth across major regions TradingView Autoweek.\n* Energy Generation and Storage business saw storage deployments increase 41% year-over-year to 13.5 GWh in Q2, with revenues growing to $3.14 billion TradingView.\n* Elon Musk reiterated that Optimus robots could become Tesla’s biggest product ever, with series production of Optimus version three beginning soon Autoweek Business Insider.\n* Musk avoided direct questions about a potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX during the earnings call, citing the need for an \"appropriate process\" Scripps News TradingView.\n* Tesla reported over 200 crashes involving its automated driver assistance systems in recent months, according to NHTSA data USA Today CleanTechnica.\n* Waymo is reportedly delivering 500,000 fully autonomous rides a week across 10+ U.S. markets, aiming for 1 million by year-end, contrasting with Tesla's more constrained Robotaxi network Torque News.\n* Waymo secured a $16 billion investment round earlier this year, pushing its valuation to $126 billion Torque News.\n* Tesla has approximately 22,000 unsold vehicles year-to-date CleanTechnica.\n\nSources: Not a Tesla App | Forbes | CleanTechnica | Yahoo Finance | Not a Tesla App

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